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The Information Pharms Race and Competitive Dynamics of Precision Medicine:...

Precision medicines inherently fragment treatment populations, generating small-population markets, creating high-priced "niche busters" rather than broadly prescribed "blockbusters". It is plausible...

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How Well Do Automated Methods Perform in Historical Samples? Evidence from...

New large-scale data linking projects are revolutionizing empirical social science. Outside of selected samples and tightly restricted data enclaves, little is known about the quality of these "big...

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The Effect of Education and School Quality on Female Crime -- by Javier...

This paper estimates the effects of educational attainment and school quality on crime among American women. Using changes in compulsory schooling laws as instruments, we estimate significant effects...

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Student Loan Nudges: Experimental Evidence on Borrowing and Educational...

We estimate the impact of student loan "nudges" on community college students' borrowing and provide the first experimental evidence of the effect of student loans on educational attainment. Nonbinding...

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The Uncovered Interest Parity Puzzle, Exchange Rate Forecasting, and Taylor...

Recent research has found that the Taylor-rule fundamentals have power to forecast changes in U.S. dollar exchange rates out of sample. Our work casts some doubt on that claim. However, we find strong...

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Learning from Coworkers: Peer Effects on Individual Investment Decisions --...

We use unique data on employee decisions in the employee stock purchase plans (ESPPs) of U.S. public firms to measure the influence of networks on investment decisions. Comparing only employees within...

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Should we Get rid of the Natural Rate Hypothesis? -- by Olivier J. Blanchard

50 years ago, Milton Friedman articulated the natural rate hypothesis. It was composed of two sub-hypotheses: First, the natural rate of unemployment is independent of monetary policy. Second, there is...

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US Exports and Employment -- by Robert C. Feenstra, Hong Ma, Yuan Xu

We examine the employment responses to import competition from China and to global export expansion from the United States, both of which have been expanding strongly during the past decades. We find...

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Moral Hazard in Health Insurance: What We Know and How We Know It -- by Liran...

We describe research on the impact of health insurance on healthcare spending ("moral hazard"), and use this context to illustrate the value of and important complementarities between different...

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Personalized Medicine When Physicians Induce Demand -- by David H. Howard,...

Advocates for "personalized medicine" tests claim they can reduce health care spending by identifying patients unlikely to benefit from costly treatments. But most tests are imperfect, and so...

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The Use and Misuse of Patent Data: Issues for Corporate Finance and Beyond --...

Patents and citations are powerful tools for understanding innovative activity inside the firm, and are increasingly use in corporate finance research. But due to the complexities of patent data...

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Intrinsic Openness and Endogenous Institutional Quality -- by Yang Jiao,...

Quality of public institutions has been recognized as a crucial determinant of macroeconomic outcomes. We propose that a country's intrinsic level of openness (due to population size, geography, or...

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Aggregating from Micro to Macro Patterns of Trade -- by Stephen J. Redding,...

We develop a new framework for aggregating from micro to macro patterns of trade. We derive price indexes that determine comparative advantage across countries and sectors and the aggregate cost of...

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Moral Hazard Misconceptions: the Case of the Greenspan Put -- by Gideon...

Policy discussions on financial market regulation tend to assume that whenever a corrective policy is used ex post to ameliorate the effects of a crisis, there are negative side effects in terms of...

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Tax Simplicity and Heterogeneous Learning -- by Philippe Aghion, Ufuk...

We study how strongly individuals respond to tax simplicity and how they learn about the complexities of the tax system. We focus on the self-employed, who can more easily adjust to tax incentives and...

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Fresh Air Eases Work - The Effect of Air Quality on Individual Investor...

This paper shows that air quality has a significantly negative effect on the likelihood of individual investors to sit down, log in, and trade in their brokerage accounts controlling for investor-,...

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Are Poor Individuals Mainly Found in Poor Households? Evidence using...

Antipoverty policies assume that targeting poor households suffices in reaching poor individuals. We question this assumption. Our comprehensive assessment for sub-Saharan Africa reveals that...

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Fast and Slow Learning From Reviews -- by Daron Acemoglu, Ali Makhdoumi,...

This paper develops a model of Bayesian learning from online reviews, and investigates the conditions for asymptotic learning of the quality of a product and the speed of learning under different...

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Socioeconomic Status and Macroeconomic Expectations -- by Sreyoshi Das,...

We show that individuals' macroeconomic expectations are influenced by their socioeconomic status (SES). People with higher income or higher education are more optimistic about future macroeconomic...

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Old-age Labor Force Participation in Germany: What Explains the Trend...

The aim of this paper is to illustrate for Germany the factors that may explain the U-shaped pattern of older men's labor force participation - from a long declining trend that began in the early 1970s...

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